Barry Sternlicht is starting a mortgage REIT in a time when credit is badly needed to restore market liquidity.
Financing mortgages was the original purpose of the REIT structure in the 1970's, until they got in trouble with a wave of too much lending with poorly underwritten loans and lax lending policies.
Sound familiar?
..... it should, as that's what happened again in the late 1980's when relaxed Savings & Loan regulation and policies promoted large scale over building leading to the worst commercial real estate market downturn until.......today, once again fueled by too much debt made possible by another "new" idea in capital flows to real estate: securitized debt in the form of RMBS/CMBS.
This new innovation in the debt markets, which provided high leverage at low rates, without recourse or risk to the borrowers, required other non-securitized loan providers, such as commercial banks, to be competitive and keep up or drop out, further rapidly expanding credit.
In fact over the last 5 years over $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans were made.
This fueled record and unsustainable pricing.
As the reaction to the overly abundant credit, initially in the sub-prime residential market, spread to other sectors, in the form of credit market contraction, a price/value decline was set off.
This drop in values further exacerbated the credit contraction, quickly becoming a hard credit freeze.
Lack of credit has also dried up capital for the purchase market, currently with transaction volumes at their lowest level in decades.
With the credit freeze comes the lowest level of new loan originations and a looming crisis in the debt markets for acquisition or refinance.
And an opportunity to selectively and prudently introduce new lending.
Historically, its almost always increased capital flows that induce the major crisis in real estate, not recessions.
And the re-establishment of prudent, patient capital flows that cures it.
When capital flows to real estate dramatically increase its often debt, abundant cheap debt, that starts the cycle.
With yields, or more accurately projected yields, "rising" as the positive effects of leverage are felt - equity starts to pour in.
A predictable cycle, that stops only when the effects of over-levered inflated investments are felt.
Those effects are usually in the form of too much capital fueling over building with eventually insufficient demand to keep up (eg the residential markets today),
or as we are now experiencing in commercial real estate, over levered, over priced acquisitions requiring debt and rental structures that are unsustainable.
Because real estate is a lagging re-actor (due primarily to the long time lag in development and the lease renewal lag in commercial assets) the supply/demand reaction is delayed, and the imbalance becomes dramatic.
So does the crash - typical of real estate.
These cyclical problems and solutions are very similar across time.
So in this environment we should again expect applications of old ideas or new twists on old structures.
Barry Sternlicht is a very bright and experienced innovator to real estate structures and I'd give respect to his mortgage REIT direction as one means of restoring capital flows to real estate.