Real Estate Econometrics released fourth quarter projections for bank-held commercial mortgages and the outlook isn't great. The New York-based firm expects rates to reach 4% at year end 2009, down slightly from a possible 4.1%, which can be attributed to "FDIC’s policy changes that will give lenders the ability to keep performing underwater loans on their books have impacted the forecasted default rate slightly," according to NREOnline.com.
In its announcement of the report, reeconometrics noted "the default rate will peak in 2011. The largest losses will occur at regional and community banks, principally due to higher concentrations in commercial real estate. At 28.4 percent, commercial real estate concentrations are greatest among banks with $100 million and $1 billion in assets." However, during an interview with Reuters, Chief Economist Sam Chandan cautioned commercial real estate lending should not be generalized. "Don't say it's a regional bank problem," he said. "The conditions of each bank need to be evaluated on their own merit."
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